How Immigration Enforcement Disrupts Farm Labor

Immigration policy changes regularly make headlines, but less attention has been paid to what happens during the quieter periods when no new laws are passed yet enforcement continues. Our recent study addresses this gap by examining how routine, unexpected increases in immigration arrests affect agricultural labor supply.

Using data from 2014 to 2018, we analyzed the relationship between unexpected spikes in Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests and farmworker labor supply. The results show significant short-term disruptions. When immigration arrests unexpectedly increase in a state, noncitizen farmworkers reduce their labor force participation by 3.4 percentage points. Weekly hours worked drop by 23 percent, translating to a decrease from approximately 42 hours to 32 hours per worker. These individual-level effects create ripples across the entire agricultural workforce, reducing overall labor force participation by 1.4 percentage points and hours worked by 9 percent. The impact is temporary, lasting about one month, but the pattern of repeated shocks creates ongoing labor market instability.

Why This Matters

These findings reveal something important about the nature of immigration enforcement beyond policy announcements and legislative changes. Instead, these are routine enforcement actions that arrive unexpectedly. The mechanism appears to operate through heightened fear and perceived risk. Essentially, workers reduce their hours to minimize visibility, temporarily exit the workforce, or relocate to areas they consider safer.

For agricultural employers, this translates into sudden labor shortages that can occur during critical periods such as harvest, even in the absence of any new immigration policy.

Looking Ahead

With over 40 percent of hired crop farmworkers unauthorized according to recent USDA statistics, agriculture remains uniquely vulnerable to enforcement actions. The current environment creates substantial uncertainty for both workers and employers. Our findings suggest that even the baseline level of enforcement during 2014 to 2018 was sufficient to disrupt labor supply. Significant increases in enforcement intensity would likely amplify these effects considerably.

The agricultural sector already faces persistent labor shortages. And, in the near term, the industry remains heavily dependent on immigrant labor, much of it unauthorized. The reality is that we cannot simultaneously engage in aggressive mass deportations and expect agricultural production to remain stable. The data do not support that outcome.  

What we need is pragmatic immigration reform that addresses pathways for unauthorized workers and improves the H-2A program to make it a viable option for US agricultural operations.

Gutiérrez‐Li A., and Rubalcaba J. "The Effects of Ongoing Internal Immigration Enforcement on the US Agricultural Labor Supply," Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics